I am in a quandary understanding the political choices that are being made round the world. The very recent Hungarian elections are an instance in point. In last Sunday’s general election, Mr Orban’s Fidesz Party has lost its majority in the Hungarian National Assembly, a unicameral assembly consisting of 199 members. Since 2010, Mr Orban’s party, which was initially viewed as a centre right party, has consistently moved further right on the political spectrum. It was also backed by the MH, or Mi Hazánk Party (Our Homeland Movement), a far right politic party which had only 6 seats in the previous assembly. They still have their 6 seats whilst Mr Orban, Party has been reduced from 135 to 55 seats. A loss of nearly 60%. Whilst eight parties and ten independents were represented in the assembly, there are now only three left. The Tisza party with 138 seats, the Fidesz and alliance Party with 55 seats and the MH with their 6.
It should be noted that when Mr Orban came to power in 2010, there were 386 seats in the assembly which represented a population of 9,979,128 which means each elected member represented about 25,852 people. In 2014 Mr Oban was again elected, however his government had changed the constitution and reduced the number of assembly members from 386 to the current 199. In that time the population had reduced to 9,862,842 and each seat represented 49,562 citizens. That population has reduced even further to around 9,585,818. Indeed the population of Hungary seems to be reducing by about 24,500 per annum over that last 16 years. Nearly 4% of the population has left the country in the last 16 years. Indeed the percentage of 30-34 year old citizens has gone down from 8.2% to 6.4% of the population and the 40 to 45 age bracket has gone down from 6.9% to 6.5%. In effect a lot of of the 30-34 year olds from 2010 may have left the country. There must be a reason for this exodus.
So far as the new prospective Prime Minister, Mr Péter Magyar, is concerned, he was formerly a member of Mr Orban’s party from 2002 to 2026, when he became president of the Tisza party which is classified as a Centre Right party, as was Mr Orban’s in 2010 when first elected. So, I ask myself just how far has the Hungarian electorate actually moved? And will the population exodus begin to decline? Also, have the political parties previously on the left completely disappeared or have they been absorbed into Tisza? The socialist and social democrats previously had 25 seats. The centrists and the conservatives had 16 seats seats. The independents had 10. That’s 51 seats that seemed to have changed hands or completely disappeared. Was there ever a left or left of centre political group at all? Will Péter Magyar go the way of Victor Orban? How far has Tisza moved away from Fidesz.
At the moment, it’s all smiles and congratulations from the rest of the European Union, as it is believed that Mr Magyar is a firm believer in the European Union, and the cries of ‘Russia go Home’ from the jubilant crowds on election night are very welcome to Mr Zelenskyy’s ears. Is this really a change of direction and will the Tisza movement, with its supermajority, actually restore greater representative government in the Assembly? Will the younger Hungarian citizens remain to find out?
Is this a move away from right wing movements around the world or just a local reset for conservative parties across the globe? Does the outcome of the Hungarian election have any impact at all on a world view? Or is it just a local European election from which one can draw no conclusions at all? Does it have any real effect on or within the European Union? These are things that give me pause. On the whole, I welcome the ousting of Mr Orban from any further influence on the political stage, or am I thinking too soon? We can only wait and see.
I am informed by Celia that the population decline is not unusual in that most European societies are in decline, but the Eastern European nations are particularly declining, Hungary being among the top countries with a declining population. Birth rates and death rates are changing although emigration is a large factor. In most Western European countries and North America the population in increasing although the growth rate is declining. Populations across the world clearly vary. In Hungary the population is in decline and the median age is rising. In 2010 it was 38.9 and in 2026 it is 44.2. It would seem younger people are leaving and going elsewhere. Whether this is a good or bad thing is debatable. We can only wait and see.
As to the ousting of the current leadership, one can only be thankful the orange man child might feel the disappointment that his endorsement carried no weight.




