ODDS ON HOPE

The Economist has run a leader on the American presidential race under the headline: “Donald Trump is very likely to be the Republican nominee - so his chances of re-entering the Oval Office are uncomfortably high”.

 

Its concluding paragraph reads: “All of which means that you should take seriously the possibility that America’s next president will be someone who would divide the West and delight Vladimir Putin; who accepts the results of elections only if he wins; who calls the thugs who broke into the Capitol on January 6th 2021 martyrs and wants to pardon them; who has proposed defaulting on the national debt to spite Mr Biden; and who is under multiple investigations for breaking criminal law, to add to his civil-law rap sheet for sexual assault. Anyone who cares about America, about democracy, about conservatism or about decency should hope that Mr DeSantis or one of the other non-Trump Republican candidates can defy the odds and best him”

 

I am assuming that the reference to Mr DeSantis is to indicate that, because he stands no chance of actually being elected president, he would be a preferred Republican candidate; however, one could hardly call him a non-Trump politician. If anything he is more Trump in outlook than non. The policies he currently advocates in Florida are just as divisive

 

The Editor-in-chief of The Economist is Zanny Minton Beddoes. She is the first woman to hold the position. Her education is Moreton Hall School, Oxford (BA) in PPE, and Harvard (MA) Kennedy Scholar. She has been very much involved in finance, the IMF and the economics of Central and Eastern Europe. She is clearly someone who knows her stuff.

 

She is married to Sebastien Mallaby, author and Journalist on Economic matters, Eton College and Oxford with a first class degree in modern history. He spent some time at the Economist and the Washington Post and is a prolific writer on economic affairs.  In 2022 he published his fifth book, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future, a history of the venture capital industry’s development in the U.S. and globally over the last seven decades.

 

He appeared at a Miami Book Fair in November of last year to give a talk and promote his book which can be seen at: https://www.c-span.org/video/?523858-11/the-power-law

 

He too, is someone who knows his stuff. He has done a lot of research. It is also clear that he is a great supporter of venture capitalists.  He seems to favour Arthur Rock and most ‘West Coast’ venture capitalists as opposed to the Bostonians. He is also a fan of Sequoia Capital, who are apparently responsible for much of the entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley, China, India, Eastern and Western Europe. This one company is responsible for capital investment and enterprises across the globe. What is interesting is their approach to risk. Whereas they invest in numerous ventures, they are unconcerned if only 1 in 10 is successful, because that 1 in 10 will produce 1000% in revenues, rendering any losses in respect of the other nine insignificant. I repeat 1000%.

 

The VC, as Mr Mallaby calls them, is more of a super-agent and deal maker. The VC will have built up a portfolio of engineers and blue-sky thinkers, that can be joined up to form start-up companies with possible potential. S/He will have a stable of investors ready and willing to finance whatever scheme the VC might want to promote. The multiplicity of ventures is spread so that the risk is distinctly calculated. Whilst Mr Mallaby accepts that government or public investment can certainly kick-start enterprise, it is only when passed on to the private sector that real benefits begin to accrue. By real benefits he no doubt means greater financial return. This can, from a certain point of view,  be extremely beneficial to the general public as well, due to positive collateral fallout from the enterprises concerned. One does have to accept though, that it is using public funds to chiefly benefit the few, but that is the power law. Government investment is great for research and development in the early stages (eg; development of covid vaccines), but perhaps better distributed by the private sector. So is the theory. One Wonders.

 

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at meetings between the Chinese Government and the executives of Sequoia Capital (China Branch). It would seem, whether we like it or not, Sequoia Capital is the global power law. Its Wikipedia entry opening paragraph is:

Sequoia Capital is an American venture capital firm headquartered in Menlo Park, California which specializes in seed stage, early stage, and growth stage investments in private companies across technology sectors. As of 2022, the firm had approximately US$85 billion in assets under management. Sequoia is an umbrella brand for three different venture entities: one focused on the U.S. and Europe, another on India and Southeast Asia, and a third on China. Notable successful investments made by the firm include Apple, Cisco, Google, Instagram, Linkedin, PayPal, Reddit, Tumblr, WhatsApp and Zoom.

You will note this is internet, technology, media, communication and information. Make of that what you will.

 

Returning to the Republican politicians who have confirmed they are in the running for the office of President of the United States, we have the following six apart from Donald Trump:

There may be others in the running in due course, including John Bolton, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Rick Scott and Chris Sununu.  The primaries don’t start until January 2024 so we will wait and see.

Whether any of the above - most of whom do not have any profile outside of the United States, let alone in the United States apart from their home state - have any chance whatsoever is questionable.

 

DeSantis has most assuredly made a media impact in Florida with his anti-woke pronouncements and his disputes with the Disney Company. Listening to his ridiculous nonsense, I find in very difficult to believe his educational credentials.  A BA, magna cum laude from Yale in 2001, teaching History at Darlington school in Georgia, and then graduating in 2005 from Harvard with a JD, cum laude ??? I do not believe any of it.  The motto for Darlington is “Wisdom more than knowledge, Service beyond self, Honor Above Everything”.

 

All of which have nothing to do with Mr DeSantis who, whilst in the Navy, served at Guantanamo and oversaw forced feeding of prisoners and God knows what other tortures.  How is it possible this man can be lauded? I do not think Mr Trump will have any difficulty in disposing of any charge from Mr DeSantis. Nor is it likely he will face any trouble from the others who have declared their intentions. I am afraid Ms Beddoes’ hope is doomed to fail. 

 

On the other hand, I have a vague feeling that there are still sufficient numbers of American citizens and voters to quell and rise above any Trump support. That is my hope, but I cannot claim to be confortable with it.