Friday 28 June 2024

WHAT DO WE DO NOW ?

If you are reading this, you see before you a cascade of words tumbling out of a brain that is scrambling for some light through the gloom that has beset the world. The United States of America - whose image round the globe since its foundation has had its ups and downs, from adulation to revilement, but, in general, thought of as a positive voice for democratic freedoms and an influence in promoting civil liberties and human rights - is on the point of destroying itself by bowing to a pathological psychotic narcissist.

 

This man who has catered to the lowest common denominator has attracted the support not only of the ignorant mob of oath keepers, proud boys and other miscreants and bigots, but of a corrupt, rigid and nationalistic class of people whose vision of America is totally akin to the National Socialism that emerged during the 1930’s in Europe. They have no regard whatsoever for the principles of the Constitution of the United States, save in so far as they can distort and pervert its meaning, to promote their own irrational thought.

 

Speech is only free if it is approved of by them, so they resort to burning and banning certain books from libraries.  Anyone who disagrees with their point of view is insulted and bullied with threats and violent remarks. A reporter asking a question they do not like, is insulted and treated with disdain. Anyone not of their level or in complete agreement is a loser and ought to be shot. Anyone who is not a member of the tribe is thought of as deviant and criminal and is loudly proclaimed as such, as well as being something else to be shot or imprisoned. It has nothing to do with America first, but with “my kind of American first”. They have recreated the United States in the image of a brazen and convicted felon and will not stop until they have destroyed what is left of democracy. They are without shame or decency.

 

They will bend to a man who claims total immunity from responsibility for any of his actions. He has openly stated as much and professes that the office of President of the United States can only to be occupied by a Dictator. It would appear the populace have accepted that premise.

 

I hear and see pundits proclaiming that Putin would not have acted as he has if Donald Trump had still been president. On the contrary, he has acted as he has because Trump was President and if President again Putin will flatter and praise him and become even more emboldened knowing full well that Trump will work to allow him to maintain his foothold and take-over of Ukraine as well as weakening the NATO alliance allowing Putin’s influence to overshadow any attempt at promoting democracy, human rights and freedoms. Putin’s not so secret weapon is Donald Trump, the man who will “do a deal” that will let him have anything he claims without resistance. It will be a terrifying enactment of the fable of the crow and the fox. 

If America is to save itself and the rest of western democracy than it has to get out the vote in as large a number as it possibly can.

 

I confess that I deliberately avoided watching any of the latest staged debate between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. The reports have been disappointing so far as I am concerned; however, so far as character is concerned, there is a grand canyon between the two men. Trump has none and Mr Biden, so far as one can tell, has a proven record of integrity. Whether that is sufficient in the circumstances to carry on with Mr Biden as the Democratic nominee is for the American Democratic Party to decide. It will have to decide reasonably quickly, but whatever it decides it must pull out all the stops to promote its candidate and get out the vote. An expectant world depends on it.

 

Monday 17 June 2024

I TRUST WE DO NOT SPEAK TOO SOON

I’m not sure just how much interest is taken by my American friends of the goings on in Europe, given the rather parlous state of the political situation in the United States. Coping with the Republican right and Maga worshipers, who might possibly shoehorn Mr Trump back into the oval office, is terrifying enough.

 

There is also a European theatre of politics that is in disarray and veering to the right. In Germany the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) is making inroads. In Hungary Victor Orban is imposing order. In France, Emmanuel Macron has called for a Parliamentary election in the hope of stopping the progress of what he sees as extremist on the right and the left. Marine Le Pen and the new President of the RN (National Rally – right wing to far right) Jordan Bardella and The Republicans’ (Centre right to right wing) Eric Ciotti are all snapping at his heels. Macron’s Renaissance (RE – Centre) party will indeed have to have a renaissance if he is not to become a lame duck President. As it is, his government is held together with very loose coalition partners. So things are very much up in the air at present.

 

As to the United Kingdom, I have made my feelings know. There is also a very good article in the Guardian opinion pages written by Nesrine Malik. I reproduce it here as it is well worth a read. If you have kept up with some of my previous comments about, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel, you will get the gist of what and to whom she is referring. There is of course the dreaded Reform Party now under the leadership of Farage. He unfortunately seems to have some support and what effect it will have on the general election is difficult to predict. I hope the predicted results are not premature. In any event, I think Ms Malik is a very clever and astute woman. Herewith her article:

 

The downfall of the Tories may be predictable, but it can still feel promising

Nesrine Malik is an award winning journalist and Guardian columnist

 

Voters keep being warned to temper expectations. But a Labour party finally taking power should embrace that sense of opportunity, and be transformed by it.

 

With the result by all measures a foregone conclusion, this general election campaign is less a contest and more a long coronation for one party, and an extended wake for the other. Keir Starmer is already being treated like the next prime minister rather than a leader of an opposition striving to unseat the incumbent. The Tories’ fate is only uncertain in terms of the degree of defeat: will it be serious diminishment or oblivion? In this interregnum, the future heaves into view.

 

The upcoming political chapter already has clear contours. Labour’s tone and policy are set. There will be no rabbits out of the hat, no crowd-pleasers, no circus shenanigans. What there will be is the long view of the management consultant – sleeves rolled up, of course – who has identified inefficiencies in the struggling business and will need a few quarters for the dividends of their work to appear on the balance sheet. With Starmer’s rejection of “tax and spend” comes a deferral to a concept of growth that relies on a lack of specificity about what can be freed up in the economy, on faith in the broad numbers you’ve been given, and on the chastened quiescence of the electorate after years of electing bad management. A way out has been identified – the tide will rise and all our boats will float up with it.

 

This is an experiment in economic theory rather than a hard milestones-based pledge. (Others might call it magical thinking that uses limited tools to reverse growth trends that have been consistent since the financial crash.) What that will produce in the near term for our government-in-waiting is a government that is waiting. If the slogan for the campaign has been “change”, the one after victory is likely to be: “We told you it would take time.”

 

And there will be no tittering from the back in the meantime, thank you very much. Starmer has already, under his first mild interrogations as would-be prime minister, shown us that there will also be no vibes. His entire personality has become straitjacketed – he cannot allow any quirk of character that betrays that he is not a man entirely dedicated to public service. Defined so far most distinctly by the distance he can put between himself and everybody else, both in his own party and the Conservatives, Starmer has extended that counterproductive impulse to his own image. He can be nothing on its own terms, only a projection of the opposite of what he believes everyone else has had enough of.

 

What have the ad libbers and charmers ever done for you? That’s right. A prime minister without rizz is not only what you’re going to get, but what you actually need.

 

I hope he relaxes once in power, if only because staying in the straitjacket would be a waste of a huge goodwill dividend that Starmer could convert into powerful affection and loyalty. And he will need agility and resilience. Take a look at the odds for the next Conservative party leader. With the likes of Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel leading the pack, what will face Labour in opposition is a sort of rattling gutter politics. It will make Sunak – who so exasperated Starmer during their first election debate – seem quite decent and restrained in comparison.

 

That is without mentioning everything that this rump of the right will stir in the right-wing press, once open season is declared after “Starmergeddon”. A party and a network of political and cultural influencers that are finally untethered from the ground of government will be freer than ever to release invective, personal politics and divisiveness into the political water.

 

Their handmaiden will be Reform and Nigel Farage, already back to near ubiquity on the airwaves. The small number of seats the party is projected to win will give it representation without the need for a real political programme. It will have a platform for ghoulish opportunism that capitalises on a febrile moment of transition in British politics and the media’s never-ending appetite for spectacle. Reform will make noise, take up airtime and ensure that immigration remains a poisonous point around which all manner of far-right darkness can coalesce.

 

That is the problem when an election is mostly lost by the Tories rather than actively won by Labour. When you’re about to win a large majority by default, standing very still and positioning yourself for the seats to fall in your lap might make immediate sense. But the price for that is not being able to contest right-wing axioms on culture and race. That space is then open to forces like Reform and other gangs of rabble-rousers that can be just big and small enough to constantly sour the political mood and aggravate racial tensions.

 

But before we have to worry about any of that, there will be a moment that I expect will be no flatter for all its predictability. The day the Conservatives are removed from power, after having a stronghold for so long, will feel like an opening, no matter how much we have been told to temper our expectations. Perhaps simply experiencing their defeat, rather than constantly predicting it, will make other things that seemed impossible less so.

 

I would wager that many who are left cold by the contest so far will feel a stirring of hope. I will certainly let it bloom, and throw at the day Hail Marys and inshallahs that the energy released in that window can be taken into the future by a government emboldened and liberated by the magic of that moment. If that doesn’t happen, we’ll have no need of fortune tellers to understand what the day after will be like – it’s the same as the days that are already here.

 

Friday 14 June 2024

WHAT SAY THE AUGURIES ?

Continuing my cogitations on voting and progressive informed government and a shift towards the right of the political spectrum, I am saddened by articles in the Economist journal and the latest polls with regard to the state of the parties in the United Kingdom.  


By the latter half of the eighteenth century numbers of people had flocked to the Americas. In 1775 there were nearly 2.5 million people living in the colonies at that time. Just under 2 million whites and just over half a million blacks, mostly slaves. In Britain there were some 8 million people. The First Continental Congress which took place between 5th September and 26th October 1774 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Of the 56 delegates most were layers, judges. Quite a number were merchants and planters, mostly from the southern colonies, but the predominant members of the Continental Congress were lawyers, university educated and most held political office of some kind. Not all were without blemish and many were slave owners. Nonetheless they produced the Declaration of Independence at the Second Congress between the 10th May 1775 and July the 4th, 1776.  

 

From then on the Congress functioned as the provisional government of the United States of America through to March 1 1781 when Articles of Confederation came into force having been ratified by the 13 Colonies. Thereafter the Constitution of the United States was presented for ratification on the 28th September 1787 and ratified by 9 of the 13 states by the 21st June 1788. It became effective on the 4th March 1789. The French Revolution kicked off two months later of the 5th May, 1789. All that some 235 years ago.  

 

Before that however, the United States was already functioning as a government.  Indeed, during the drafting of the constitution at the Constitutional Convention, John Adams was in Britain serving as minister to Britain and Thomas Jefferson was serving as Minister to France. It took a while to put in together, and despite the various squabbles and compromises, these were educated men who had travelled, who were aware of the political situations in Europe, who had read the philosophies of John Locke, Montesquieu and Edward Coke, borrowed from Magna Carta, read Blackstone and a great many others. In short they knew their stuff and they ground out an extraordinary document in so far as they could to cover a number of eventualities

 

They did a pretty good job, in particular as to the maintenance of a free people’s government under the rule of law. They had supreme respect for the rights of the individual citizen –of the people, by the people, for the people:

We The People of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquillity, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

 

So what have we now?  People who have nowhere near the education and culture of the founding fathers led by the most divisive psychotic narcissist whose sole purpose appears to be to become dictator of America. His speeches have nothing whatever to do with tranquillity, promoting general welfare or securing the blessings of liberty, except his own ability to lie, to dissemble, to be free to crap all over the Constitution with impunity being supported by a party that sees its sole purpose but to cater to this madman. Not a single forward thinking piece of legislation is discussed. It is all about what is best for Mr Trump. They prostrate themselves to this gargantuan ego, this monster who walks among us rather than being caged as he should be. His entire rhetoric, if one can call it that, is devoted to complaint about how he is so hard done by, how the entire nation is being manipulated against him.  All the while he is succeeding in gaslighting sufficient number of the citizens to go along with his clinically childish and regressive behaviour. He speaks violence, not tranquillity. He speaks repression and vengeance, not union and general welfare. I repeat myself.

 

I don’t know how often or how loudly one has to repeat what he stands for to break through the skulls of his Maga supporters. Are they really so blind and thick. What has happened to decency in America?

 

The problems in the United Kingdom are slightly more complex. We have a Constitutional Monarchy. The Constitution is unwritten, but it is contained in the Common Law and the existing Statutory Legislation, as well as time honoured custom, going back some 1000 years. Much of what is contained in the written constitution of the United States comes from this Kingdom’s progression towards its constitutional monarchy. The individual freedoms that most British citizens claim as of right are just as much carved in their hearts and souls as any document or parchment. Yet there are some who would seek to cut them out, to remove them with surreptitious surgical legislation to stop and imprison any form of dissent.  The so called Reform Party is just a reiteration of the National Front. Are they really now one percentage point ahead of the Conservatives in the polls? 

 

Just as Trump lashes out at migrants at the start of just about any speech he makes, apart from his ‘woe is me’ element, so Nigel Farage lashes out at immigrants who are apparently overtaking the entire country and squeezing the treasury dry. That is his solution. It is why he supports Trump. It is why Ms Truss supports Trump.

 

Fortunately there is another party that is in front in the polls, now at apparently 37%, some 18 points ahead of Reform and the Conservatives, but a few points down on what they were at the start of this election campaign. There are three weeks left before the 4th July I hope that lead will not disappear, but the trend is a worry.

 

I can only hope that a Labour victory on America’s Independence Day will be a sufficient boost and influence on America’s election on Guy Fawkes Day in the United States. The insurrectionist on that occasion failed to blow up Parliament. Let us hope the insurrectionist in chief will fail again just as he failed on the 6th January four year ago. The auguries are there.

Thursday 13 June 2024

STOP AND THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU VOTE FOR

There is a serious problem with the media and with the British public - and I include all elected representatives in this category - on the matter of Jeremy Corbyn. He is constantly being brought up as some kind of bogey man whenever a labour politician is challenged, on their current  policies, for having once supported Jeremy Corbyn.

 

When Jeremy Corbyn was being put forward as leader of the labour party the very fact of his candidacy brought about a huge influx of membership into the party. Great numbers of young people, who probably for the first time in their lives in choosing a political position to support, chose Labour because of the ideas and policies stated by Jeremy Corbyn. Is it any wonder that a number of senior Labour Party members and officials supported him as a result?

 

Nevertheless throughout his time in the spotlight he was seen as ‘unelectable’, ‘too far left’, ‘unrealistic’ ‘too radical’ ‘too old school leftist’ and any number of other things. So what was so bad that it attracted so many young people to his cause. He wanted economic and social equality for all, he wanted the Palestinian people to have a country of their own, he objected to the manner in which the Israeli Government dealt with the Palestinians, he wanted to get rid of Trident or at least stop keeping up the payments, he wanted to divert a lot of military spending towards the NHS and social care, he wanted to use Prime Ministers Questions to actually ask questions that were sent to him by his constituents and the general public rather than attempting to score debating points and clever repartee, he wanted protection for workers and tenants, he wanted to promote peace around the world.

 

So I ask what is so dreadful about any of these aspirations. If his campaigning for the Palestinian people had succeeded would we now have the appalling situation in Gaza? If his diverting funds spent on weapons of mass destruction to be spent on the NHS and providing social care, would we have the waiting lists and chaos we now have? Might we also by now have had more protection for tenants from eviction? Might we have a clearer path towards protecting the environment? There are any number of ‘far left’ and ‘unrealistic’ goals that might have been reached. We will never know.

 

He did not institute the disastrous Brexit Referendum. He did not openly lie to the British Public and to Parliament. He did not initiate a complete economic breakdown and spark a cost of living crisis across the country. There are any number of ‘realistic’ and ‘popular’ policies that he did not initiate. So why is this man, who has never held government power, or even been given a chance to do so, seen as such a bogeyman?

 

I hear journalists ask in so many words “Horror of horrors, you once supported Jeremy Corbyn, what have you to say for yourself?  How is it you keep changing your mind? How can the public trust you now that you no longer support him?” I hear conservative politicians bring up past support for Jeremy Corbyn as something to be ashamed of and a flaw in one’s character.

 

Again, who crashed the economy with wild hare-brained schemes, departure from the European Union, failure to provide adequate and safe housing, failure to maintain the NHS, continuing failure on social care, a significant diminution of the country’s influence in international affairs. One could go on and on. I do not understand why Labour leaders do not push back on ‘accusations’ of support for Jeremy Corbyn.  For goodness’s sake spin it back. Do not be ashamed of wanting a better world.

 

All political parties, particularly in this multicultural, differently educated, and multi-layered economic society, are a broad church. Each has equally centrist and extremists across its spectrum. Unless the Labour Party is pushed from the left we might never even get near any progressive legislation at all. It would just be a continuation of what we’ve already had from the Conservatives, and a lot of people thinks that is what we already have. Change? What change? Is it really a change of ideas or just a change of personnel.

 

I had started to do a piece about voting and elections generally across the world, but I was incensed on hearing Amol Rajan, on Today BBC4, bringing up the Jeremy Corbyn reference yet again. One just has to mention the name and there is a presumption that it has an actual derogatory meaning. Why should there be that presumption and why do people buy into it?

 

Here is what I started to contemplate yesterday: 

The average citizen in a democracy (and I include low-information voters in this category) does not spend their time constantly thinking about politics, nor do they meditate over the lives of their political representatives 24/7. In some democracies every such citizen however, does, at the appropriate time, think about how they will cast their vote, whether it be for a party or a specific individual, to be their representative in government.

 

In some countries, elections occur at fixed periods of time and some, even more precisely, on fixed dates. The lead up to elections that have no specific date is the time between the announcement of the election and the date itself. It is usually a short period of approximately six weeks to two months. The various parties and candidates will then campaign to solicit as many citizens as they can to vote for them. For a short period of time they will bombard the electorate with leaflets, adverts, displays, interviews, debates and any number of performances and attractions to garner the voter’s support. It is an intense undertaking.

 

That does not mean that the parties and representatives are not campaigning for support at other times, only less intently. Every interview or action taken by our representatives is always made with the prospect of further support down the line. The opportunity to gather voter popularity is never turned away, and whilst in office it is important to proclaim success in ‘delivering’ on promises achieved or yet to be fulfilled.   There is no moment when a representative does not have an eye on the next election. They want to serve their constituents, of course, but staying in office is key to being able to serve, and staying in power is equally attractive. So the performance goes on.

 

In countries with very fixed election dates, the campaigning aspect of political life is a bit more hardcore, and seems to be never ending. It intensifies from about 12 months before the actual election as candidates vie for party nominations and selections for the various offices on offer. The higher the office, the more intense and prolonged the campaign. Prospective candidates for high office, whether in or out of office, are constantly promoting themselves, gathering support and funding at every opportunity. They are constantly in the public eye. Indeed, unless they are seen and heard no one will know who they are. So the gathering of adherents is unceasing. It is ramped up to astronomic proportions during the six or so weeks before the actual election date, and even longer, perhaps two years, for lesser known political hopefuls.

 

Bearing this in mind, if the pundits on electorates and elections are correct, a majority have already made up their minds who and which political party they will support. That being the case, the campaigns must be directed at that small percentage that has not decided, and in the vain hope of changing some minds that have.  Whatever the problem, the propaganda and assault on the senses by political spin doctors is most certainly overwhelming and I know very few people who are not turned away from the plethora of exhibitions, revelations, disclosures and other manifestations of political agendas to make one’s life better, save the planet and bring peace to the world.  It becomes too much. 

 

The frustration of watching and listening to a debate between opposing candidates and being baffled by the failure of one’s favoured candidate to push back on the inanities of an opposing candidate is too much to bear. “Why doesn’t she say this…? “Why does he let that go…?” “What can she be thinking…?” etc. and so much else; so, tune out rather than in. You begin to wonder why you support them.

 

Hence, whilst not immersed in politics all of the time, there is a nagging and uncomfortable anxiety about what the future holds. Given the nature of democratic societies in any country with a reasonable population of very mixed and multicultural citizens it is quite natural to worry about the various things that hold the nation together and how to bring everyone on board to at least recognise and work for the essentials. Governments, whether national or local, cannot perform miracles. Democratic government cannot stop crime, prevent disease or discrimination.  It can only provide the tools to control criminal activity, places to provide care and cures for illnesses and promote well-being, help to create a climate for promoting equality and prevent all forms of discrimination within its own institutions.

 

The creation of rules and regulations does not stop individuals from breaking rules and regulations. The rule of law and duty of care exists only because people follow the rule of law and understand their own duty of care towards others.

 

The problem of how to maintain and create the best security, health and welfare of the nation is what concerns us all. Various groups have come together with a plan and philosophy on just how to go about that endeavour. They form political groups. Some put themselves forward as champions of that plan and philosophy. They try to convince others that theirs’s is the best plan. They offer themselves up to serve the general population and bring that plan to fruition.

 

In a democracy people argue over these plans constantly. They are only put into effect with the consent of the electorate. When it is clear that the plans are no longer working and are in fact detrimental to society at large it is time to change course. This will either be a complete change of plan or merely a change in direction. The electorate will ultimately decide, but that involves the politics boring into our lives, in all senses of the word.

 

The great tragedy for some of the current democracies is that the philosophies of the parties are so divided and far apart that there seems no room for compromise and there is an edge of darkness about them. Serious violent clash lies just below the surface. On the spectrum of political problem solving there is on the right a group that would narrow and control the democratic process so as to prevent any dissent from its point of view. They seek to restore order. They seek to enforce order. They seek to dictate and they have followers who would support them every step of the way on the assumption that they too would have dictatorial advantage. Some of them might, whereas many others, even amongst their own, would suffer.

 

It happens time and time again and is happening now across the world, in Russia, Hungary, Belarus, Myanmar and many other places. It could most assuredly happen in the United States as well as in the United Kingdom. Do not be tempted to believe ‘It can’t happen here’. The constitution and freedoms promoted by the colonists of the seventeenth and eighteenth century, those European refugees from feudal lands, is just as fragile now as it was them. 

 

That is as far as I got before deing distracted by Jeremy Corbyn, so more of this anon.

Thursday 6 June 2024

MR STAN MINCHER

I heard Mr Stan Mincher being interviewed on the Today program this morning on Radio 4. He was born in 1926 and was 18 years old on the 6th June 1944 when as a young Midshipman in the Royal Naval Volunteer Reserve (RNVR) he piloted a landing craft on to “Nan” beach which was a section of Juno Beach sector at Berniere-sur-Mer in Normandy France. It is well worth listening to. Go to BBC Sounds, Radio 4, Today Programme 6th June 2024 and scroll in 2hr 14 min for the start of the interview. The time of the interview is 8:14 AM. Among other comments he said "What a waste of time war is....there aren't many right conditions for war"

Wednesday 5 June 2024

A BIGGER PICTURE

Sorry to trouble you with constant and persistent mulling over of matters relating to Donald Trump, but I have just received an email from my American legal advisor Bob whose last email I posted on the 29th April 2024 in which he made comment about the makeup of the Supreme Court. In this instance he comments on the recent trial in Manhattan. I feel it is worth a read.

 

Many have commented on the nature of the prosecution as being trivial in comparison to the other indictments Mr Trump faces. Indeed, some have commented that the defence may well be able to appeal against the convictions on the basis that, on the facts in evidence it is difficult to be certain beyond a reasonable doubt, that Mr Trump’s falsification of business records was intended and calculated to deceive. The case therefore should be dismissed as a matter of law. The members of the jury, however, were unanimous and clearly felt the evidence led to only one conclusion, that his actions intended to deceive. That is a fact any appellate court will have to contend with.

 

In any event, what was done to deceive the American people is no trivial matter. It is not a simple misdemeanour. It amounts to a serious criminal act which has led to serious harm and injury to Americans and continues to do so by its venal and vindictive divisive nature. That any political party or individual citizen can stand behind this man is beyond comprehension. To allow a convicted felon, who has lost his right to even vote, to stand for election, surpasses insanity. We are in the twilight zone.

 

I am generally against custodial sentences of any kind. They serve no purpose; however, there are instances where some individuals are so harmful and dangerous to others, that it is imperative that they be isolated to protect the public. Sad, but that is sometimes the case. As Bob so clearly concludes, there is a bigger picture. 

 

In Defence of Trump? 

During my legal career, I tried hundreds of matters, both jury and non-jury in California and a few in the federal courts. I spent six years as a prosecutor, and another few years on the superior court’s defence panel. I tried numerous other matters after that. 

 

The trial of DJT was no surprise to anyone with any trial experience as far as the elements that were reported on by the news media. The surprise was in how DJT forced his defence team into a corner and never called Allen Weisselberg in his defence.  

 

Weisselberg was “in the room” for the payment discussions between DJT and Michael Cohen. Clearly, Weisselberg was available only a few miles away as a prisoner serving time at Rikers Island Correctional Facility, about 12 miles from the court. The Court could have ordered him to court as a witness at the Defence’s request. Due to his NDL with Trump and the payment of several million dollars for his silence, he was not really available to the prosecution.  

 

Additionally, DJT could have elected to testify in his own defence that he had no knowledge of exactly what the payments to Cohen were for – although his signatures were on some of the checks paid to Cohen.

 

The main point of this case, which has been missed by most of the media, is that if the Stormy Daniels saga was released right after the “Access Hollywood” video was released, it most likely could have changed the Presidential election result. The whole point of the prosecution was that DJT withheld vital information about himself from the electorate just a few weeks before the election. The result of the subterfuge was a catastrophic 4 year presidency with top staff resigning every few months and a fumbled handling of the Covid pandemic leading to the unnecessary loss of hundreds of thousands of lives in the United States. 

 

Additionally, DJT has interfered with witnesses testifying in a number of Congressional hearings and trials. Everyone who has worked for him has been required to sign a “non-disclosure agreement”. His “go to” is to hide information about himself and then publicly tell untruths and half-truths that help make him look good. He’s told his followers not to listen to the “main stream” media but only listen to him. In furtherance of this tactic, he’s started “OAN” and “Truth Social” to funnel his lies and half-truths to his followers and low information voters. 

 

DJT, before, during, and after the trial, has repeatedly attacked the courts, the judge, and our judicial system to delegitimize US courts and the system of justice. 

 

So, in sentencing DJT, the Judge should certainly take into account the big picture of the significance of this case. Most who have violated these statutes in New York spend significant time in prison. If we are a rule of law country, then this case should be treated with the seriousness that it deserves.


 

 

 

Tuesday 4 June 2024

ADDITIONAL COMMENT

In my ramblings yesterday I mentioned an article in the Los Angeles Times, which I could not find at the time of writing. I mentioned “people on low level knowledge of politics”. I realise that my memory of the. article was not as accurate as I thought and that I imposed my own bias and prejudices on what I had read. I suppose we all do that in one way or another.

 

The actual article was written by David Lauter and was published in the 1st June edition of the paper. It was titled “How Trump’s conviction will - and won’t – impact his 2024 chances”.

David Lauter writes the Saturday Los Angeles Times Politics newsletter from Washington, D.C. He began writing news in Washington in 1981 and has covered Congress, the Supreme Court, the White House under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and six U.S. presidential campaigns. He served as Washington bureau chief from 2011-20. Lauter lived in Los Angeles from 1995 to 2011, where he was The Times’ deputy Foreign editor, deputy Metro editor and then assistant managing editor responsible for California coverage.

 

In the article he comments:

“Low-information voters matter a lot

Trump’s conviction probably won’t change very many minds among people who regularly watch MSNBC, Fox or CNN.

The sorts of voters who pay a lot of attention to politics and public affairs — the people who know who Michael Cohen is and how David Pecker figures into the hush money case — are overwhelmingly the types of people who have strongly partisan views. That’s why they pay attention.

They’re not the voters who decide close elections.

Those who do — the people who can swing back and forth between the parties — are mostly folks who tune out politics and public events in general.

Political strategists refer to them as low-information voters because they don’t have a great deal of knowledge of who the candidates are or what they stand for.  (my italics)

But many still vote — especially in presidential races. They’re the voters to watch in the weeks to come.

Don’t expect big shifts

The race between Trump and Biden was very close before Trump’s conviction. It’s almost surely going to be close afterward.

A lot of people — especially many liberal Democrats — consistently have had trouble wrapping their minds around that basic fact.

Ever since Trump first entered electoral politics almost nine years ago, some of his ardent opponents have believed that a single event — the “Access Hollywood” tape, the Mueller investigation, the chaotic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a criminal case — would disqualify Trump in the minds of most voters.

That hasn’t happened and almost certainly won’t now.

We live in a highly polarized political era in which partisans on both sides vote against the other party as much as — sometimes more than — they vote for the candidate on their own side. That’s doubly true with Trump, who inspires deep loyalty from his supporters and intense loathing from his foes.

The vast majority of voters in this election — well over 80% — made up their minds long ago.

It’s hard to know what could change their vote; this won’t.”


How sad is that conclusion. In my blog I referred to ‘low-information voters’ as ‘people with low level knowledge of politics’. Mr Lauter also stated ‘That doesn’t mean they’re unintelligent or ignorant. It means they’ve chosen to focus their attention on other aspects of life’. I remarked ‘I find, on reflection, that the author was attempting to excuse the stupidity of a large uneducated and ignorant section of American society without causing offence.’

 

The tone of Mr Lauter’s piece is matter of fact and even handed. Have I read too much into it? Am I wrong in my view and liberal bias? Is it a matter of education over blind ignorance? Is that what is polarizing America? The full article can be found at:

https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2024-06-01/hows-trumps-conviction-will-and-wont-impact-his-2024-chances-politics

 

I leave it with you to decide should you bother to read the full article.

 

What is clear, from everything I see and hear about the United States, is that the Nation is seriously divided. Is it on the brink of equally serious violence? Are those decision making undecided low-information voters so confused that they don’t know which way to turn and may not vote at all? Would their not turning out to vote favour Mr Biden or Mr Trump?

 

I would like to think that the majority of the probable 80%, who have already made up their minds, will favour Mr Biden over Mr Trump.  The Census Bureau has released new educational attainment data:

 

“In 2021, the highest level of education of the population age 25 and older in the United States was distributed as follows: 8.9% had less than a high school diploma or equivalent.

  • 27.9% had high school graduate as their highest level of school completed. 
  • 14.9% had completed some college but not a degree.
  • 10.5% had an associate degree as their highest level of school completed.
  • 23.5% had a bachelor’s degree as their highest degree.
  • 14.4% had completed an advanced degree such as a master’s degree, professional degree or doctoral degree.”

 

This would indicate that 48.4% had some sort of academic degree and at least 14.9% had attended some form of higher educational institution. Of those perhaps some 1.7% will bring the figure to 50.1% which I’m hoping is in the anti-Trump category of American voters. Of course this speculation is just that, and has no real relevance, but it is a faint hope that my hope is warranted. 

 

Here in the UK, the electioneering is grinding on. The Home Secretary, James Cleverly comes up with inane nonsense. In an interview on the Today Program on BBC 4, he was asked, inter alia, why it was that in the 14 years of Conservative government, and repeated promises to bring down immigration levels, they have failed to do so. He responded by stating that the conservatives have made plans to do so and that labour has consistently voted against them. They have a plan and labour does not. 

 

Given that the Conservatives have had a big majority in Parliament, whether or not Labour has consistently voted against their plans matters not. The plans would presumably have been approved by Parliament given that majority. Clearly their plans have failed which has nothing to do with how Labour has voted.  Does he think the British electorate are low-information voters? He avoided answering any direct question and babbled on about ‘plans’ and ‘no plans’, revealing that the conservative party really has no plans either other than mouthing nonsense. 

 

The English expression “all mouth and no trousers” comes to mind. Loud and boastful is all that can be derived from this man and all his colleagues. 

 

The mouth and trousers man in chief is of course Nigel Farage who is once again taking the stage. He is apparently hoping to be elected as MP in the Clacton Constituency. The seat has been held by the conservative party since 2005. John Carswell served as MP from 2005 to 2017. He co-founded Vote Leave and currently serves as president and CEO of the Mississippi Centre for Public Policy. The seat has been held by conservative Giles Watling since 2017. Mr Carswell left the UK in 2021 and now lives in Jackson Mississippi, USA. No doubt a Trump supporter.

 

This is the seat that Mr Farage hopes to claim as his entry into Parliament. Given what the electors in Clacton have chosen as their representative in the past, he has made a reasonable choice. As a supporter of Mr Trump and his previously stated desire to head to the United States to help Mr Trump in his campaign for President, if he loses to Mr Watling on the 4th of July, he may well join Mr Carswell in Mississippi. 

 

Mr Tony Mack had been the Reform UK parliamentary candidate until Mr Farage stepped up. Previously Reform UK stated:

Tony Mack

PPC Candidate Reform UK Clacton

Tony Mack Top Choice

Tony Mack is the best-choice PPC for Clacton Constituency. With a track record of leadership and dedication to the community, Tony is the best candidate to represent your voice in Parliament. Vote for Tony Mack for a brighter future for Clacton.

You can find his full biog at: https://reformukclacton.website/meet-tony-mack/  in which he states: 

"I have lived in Clacton for several years. I spent lots of time here, growing up with weekend caravans at Point Clear and Jaywick. Furthermore, I always dreamed of living by the sea in Clacton and was lucky enough to be able to buy a house here in semi-retirement. I grew up in East London, Bethnal Green. I was a black cab driver from my early twenties to my 40s. Then I went on to study and qualify as an integrative psychotherapist, and I set up practice several years ago. I am a father and a grandfather. The reason I am in politics is because I want my children and my grandchildren to grow up in a free, democratic, common-sense country like the U.K. used to be."

"The Reform UK candidate forced to make way for Nigel Farage has told supporters the decision “came as a surprise”. Tony Mack, who was campaigning to be the next MP for Clacton-on-Sea, said he was “disappointed” to no longer be running."

 

I assume that,  as an integrative psychotherapist, he will be able to process his disappointment. Whether Mr Farage’s decision to stand in Clacton is an attack of moral outrage, as suggested by Mr Bowater, is indeed problematic. No doubt Mr Mack would have something to say about that.

 

It should be noted that Mr Watling had a majority of 25,000 at the last election and that Mr Farage has a 1% chance of winning, which will be of some secret comfort to Mr Mack.