In my ramblings yesterday I mentioned an article in the Los Angeles Times, which I could not find at the time of writing. I mentioned “people on low level knowledge of politics”. I realise that my memory of the. article was not as accurate as I thought and that I imposed my own bias and prejudices on what I had read. I suppose we all do that in one way or another.
The actual article was written by David Lauter and was published in the 1st June edition of the paper. It was titled “How Trump’s conviction will - and won’t – impact his 2024 chances”.
David Lauter writes the Saturday Los Angeles Times Politics newsletter from Washington, D.C. He began writing news in Washington in 1981 and has covered Congress, the Supreme Court, the White House under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and six U.S. presidential campaigns. He served as Washington bureau chief from 2011-20. Lauter lived in Los Angeles from 1995 to 2011, where he was The Times’ deputy Foreign editor, deputy Metro editor and then assistant managing editor responsible for California coverage.
In the article he comments:
“Low-information voters matter a lot
Trump’s conviction probably won’t change very many minds among people who regularly watch MSNBC, Fox or CNN.
The sorts of voters who pay a lot of attention to politics and public affairs — the people who know who Michael Cohen is and how David Pecker figures into the hush money case — are overwhelmingly the types of people who have strongly partisan views. That’s why they pay attention.
They’re not the voters who decide close elections.
Those who do — the people who can swing back and forth between the parties — are mostly folks who tune out politics and public events in general.
Political strategists refer to them as low-information voters because they don’t have a great deal of knowledge of who the candidates are or what they stand for. (my italics)
But many still vote — especially in presidential races. They’re the voters to watch in the weeks to come.
Don’t expect big shifts
The race between Trump and Biden was very close before Trump’s conviction. It’s almost surely going to be close afterward.
A lot of people — especially many liberal Democrats — consistently have had trouble wrapping their minds around that basic fact.
Ever since Trump first entered electoral politics almost nine years ago, some of his ardent opponents have believed that a single event — the “Access Hollywood” tape, the Mueller investigation, the chaotic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a criminal case — would disqualify Trump in the minds of most voters.
That hasn’t happened and almost certainly won’t now.
We live in a highly polarized political era in which partisans on both sides vote against the other party as much as — sometimes more than — they vote for the candidate on their own side. That’s doubly true with Trump, who inspires deep loyalty from his supporters and intense loathing from his foes.
The vast majority of voters in this election — well over 80% — made up their minds long ago.
It’s hard to know what could change their vote; this won’t.”
How sad is that conclusion. In my blog I referred to ‘low-information voters’ as ‘people with low level knowledge of politics’. Mr Lauter also stated ‘That doesn’t mean they’re unintelligent or ignorant. It means they’ve chosen to focus their attention on other aspects of life’. I remarked ‘I find, on reflection, that the author was attempting to excuse the stupidity of a large uneducated and ignorant section of American society without causing offence.’
The tone of Mr Lauter’s piece is matter of fact and even handed. Have I read too much into it? Am I wrong in my view and liberal bias? Is it a matter of education over blind ignorance? Is that what is polarizing America? The full article can be found at:
I leave it with you to decide should you bother to read the full article.
What is clear, from everything I see and hear about the United States, is that the Nation is seriously divided. Is it on the brink of equally serious violence? Are those decision making undecided low-information voters so confused that they don’t know which way to turn and may not vote at all? Would their not turning out to vote favour Mr Biden or Mr Trump?
I would like to think that the majority of the probable 80%, who have already made up their minds, will favour Mr Biden over Mr Trump. The Census Bureau has released new educational attainment data:
“In 2021, the highest level of education of the population age 25 and older in the United States was distributed as follows: 8.9% had less than a high school diploma or equivalent.
- 27.9% had high school graduate as their highest level of school completed.
- 14.9% had completed some college but not a degree.
- 10.5% had an associate degree as their highest level of school completed.
- 23.5% had a bachelor’s degree as their highest degree.
- 14.4%
had completed an advanced degree such as a master’s degree, professional
degree or doctoral degree.”
This would indicate that 48.4% had some sort of academic degree and at least 14.9% had attended some form of higher educational institution. Of those perhaps some 1.7% will bring the figure to 50.1% which I’m hoping is in the anti-Trump category of American voters. Of course this speculation is just that, and has no real relevance, but it is a faint hope that my hope is warranted.
Here in the UK, the electioneering is grinding on. The Home Secretary, James Cleverly comes up with inane nonsense. In an interview on the Today Program on BBC 4, he was asked, inter alia, why it was that in the 14 years of Conservative government, and repeated promises to bring down immigration levels, they have failed to do so. He responded by stating that the conservatives have made plans to do so and that labour has consistently voted against them. They have a plan and labour does not.
Given that the Conservatives have had a big majority in Parliament, whether or not Labour has consistently voted against their plans matters not. The plans would presumably have been approved by Parliament given that majority. Clearly their plans have failed which has nothing to do with how Labour has voted. Does he think the British electorate are low-information voters? He avoided answering any direct question and babbled on about ‘plans’ and ‘no plans’, revealing that the conservative party really has no plans either other than mouthing nonsense.
The English expression “all mouth and no trousers” comes to mind. Loud and boastful is all that can be derived from this man and all his colleagues.
The mouth and trousers man in chief is of course Nigel Farage who is once again taking the stage. He is apparently hoping to be elected as MP in the Clacton Constituency. The seat has been held by the conservative party since 2005. John Carswell served as MP from 2005 to 2017. He co-founded Vote Leave and currently serves as president and CEO of the Mississippi Centre for Public Policy. The seat has been held by conservative Giles Watling since 2017. Mr Carswell left the UK in 2021 and now lives in Jackson Mississippi, USA. No doubt a Trump supporter.
This is the seat that Mr Farage hopes to claim as his entry into Parliament. Given what the electors in Clacton have chosen as their representative in the past, he has made a reasonable choice. As a supporter of Mr Trump and his previously stated desire to head to the United States to help Mr Trump in his campaign for President, if he loses to Mr Watling on the 4th of July, he may well join Mr Carswell in Mississippi.
Mr Tony Mack had been the Reform UK parliamentary candidate until Mr Farage stepped up. Previously Reform UK stated:
Tony Mack
PPC Candidate Reform UK Clacton
Tony Mack Top Choice
Tony Mack is the best-choice PPC for Clacton Constituency. With a track record of leadership and dedication to the community, Tony is the best candidate to represent your voice in Parliament. Vote for Tony Mack for a brighter future for Clacton.
You can find his full biog at: https://reformukclacton.website/meet-tony-mack/ in which he states:
"I have lived in Clacton for several years. I spent lots of time here, growing up with weekend caravans at Point Clear and Jaywick. Furthermore, I always dreamed of living by the sea in Clacton and was lucky enough to be able to buy a house here in semi-retirement. I grew up in East London, Bethnal Green. I was a black cab driver from my early twenties to my 40s. Then I went on to study and qualify as an integrative psychotherapist, and I set up practice several years ago. I am a father and a grandfather. The reason I am in politics is because I want my children and my grandchildren to grow up in a free, democratic, common-sense country like the U.K. used to be."
"The Reform UK candidate forced to make way for Nigel Farage has told supporters the decision “came as a surprise”. Tony Mack, who was campaigning to be the next MP for Clacton-on-Sea, said he was “disappointed” to no longer be running."
I assume that, as an integrative psychotherapist, he will be able to process his disappointment. Whether Mr Farage’s decision to stand in Clacton is an attack of moral outrage, as suggested by Mr Bowater, is indeed problematic. No doubt Mr Mack would have something to say about that.
It should be noted that Mr Watling had a majority of 25,000 at the last election and that Mr Farage has a 1% chance of winning, which will be of some secret comfort to Mr Mack.
Those of us in the U.S. who are educated are appalled by the possibility of another 4 years of the orange menace in the oval office. We are in disbelief that there are enough people here clueless enough to vote him in. And to really throw us into a mix of total disbelief, we now have the wormy brained monkey wrench RFK Jr. to cope with. Our country is divided into "red" and "blue" states and it makes me wonder how we can ever function as the UNITED states again.
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