BLOW THE MAN DOWN

The United Kingdom and France have had their surprise elections. Both Sunak and Macron decided to go to the polls presumably with the idea that their position would be enhanced. Bold action was taken much to the surprise of the public and opposition parties. To some extent their decision was a mistake. Catastrophically so for Mr Sunak and marginally so for Mr Macron.

 

The French Assemblée Nationale, under their electoral rules, is a two round first-past-the- post system. Which at least ensures that the eventual winning candidate obtains at least 50 % + of the electors in their district; however, if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote in the first round, then they are elected, and no second vote will take place in that district.  There are currently 577 such districts, and, given the number of parties and candidates it is not often that anyone would get over 50% in the first round.

 

One should note that were that to be the case in the United Kingdom, a great many new Labour MP’s might not have been elected. Going through the detailed result of the British Election, it is clear that a very different result would have occurred and in some cases making voting extremely difficult for some of the electorate.

 

As an instance in point, in Clacton the top two candidates were Nigel Farage (Reform) at 46.2% of the vote and in second place Giles Watling (Conservative) at 27.9%, followed by Labour at 16.2%, Liberal Democrats at 4.4%, Green at 4.2%, Independent at 0.7%, UKIP at 0.3%, Climate Party at 0.1% and Heritage Party at 0.1%.

 

The second ballot would be between Reform and Conservatives, with none of the others on the ballot. In order to defeat Farage if would have taken all Labour, Liberal Democrats and Green Party voters to unanimously vote for the conservative candidate. How many of them might choose not to vote at all in these circumstances?

 

As another example, in Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, the results were 41.9% for Labour, 28.8% for Reform, 22.6% for Conservatives, 3% for Greens, 2.8% Liberal Democrat, 0.6% TUSC, and 0.3% for SDP. That would leave Labour and Reform in the second round. With Reform and Conservatives combined they would have had 51.4% of the vote and young Melonie Onn would not have been re-elected (She had lost her seat in the 2019 election). That is of course assuming all the conservative voters would have switched to Reform in the second round, which is more likely. Conservatives veering to the right is more plausible than Labour or Liberal Democrat supporters voting for a Conservative as would have been the choice in Clacton.

 

In any event, the left and centrist voters in France, given the choice, rallied together to at least maintain some sort of majority in the National Assembly. Between the NFP left wing alliance (182 seats) and Macron’s coalition (168 seats) they have 60.6% of the assembly or at least a 227 majority if they combined forces. This may prove difficult for some of Mr Macron’s more conservative party members. As to whether some sort of accommodation between them is possible, we shall have to wait and see. 

 

I note that our friends in France, Keith and Emma, have Ms Sandra Marsaud as their representative. She is part of Macron’s coalition and is in the Groupe Renaissance. Her district is however surrounded by RN (Rassemblement national) representatives, Caroline Colombier, Florence Joubert and Pascal Markowsky.

 

Sandra Marsaud

 

And so we are waiting to see in the UK. Much activity has been taking place in Whitehall and around the country. Lots of travelling about and declarations of intentions. Attempts by Labour politicians to answer journalists’ questions with nearly direct responses is encouraging. Not quite but almost.

I am hoping that our newly elected government does not fall prey to the popular expectations that government can ‘fix’ problems over which they have little control. Mr Starmer has already stated that he does not have a magic wand and consequently certain matters, such as criminal activity in the form of violence and dishonesty and other assorted antisocial behaviour, are not things that can be stopped by governments.

 

Such activity has gone on ad nauseum since humans have inhabited the earth. It has varied over the years in intensity and varies from country to country, but it is ever present and no amount of imprisonment or draconian sentences has deterred or prevented it from occurring. Indeed Saudi Arabia last cut off the right hand of a convicted thief in December of 2914. Apparently, they also have the highest execution rate in the world. It has not prevented crime.  

 

There is only so much a decent government can do. Providing basic human rights of access to health, decent housing, safety at work, comprehensive education (including academic, professional and trade skills) and a decent and clean environment in which citizens can put into practice the fruits of their education, is about all one can hope for. Keeping the peace and influencing good international relations is a bonus. No pressure then.

 

Some of us are pleased with the outcome of the elections. It gives one a feeling of optimism and some comfort in believing that a more liberal, progressive and socially responsible administration is in charge. Whether the elected representatives will go the way of arrogance and self-conceit as did many in the conservative party- to wit Rees-Mogg, Truss, Braverman, Patel, Shapps et all – is yet to be seen.

 

I was particularly struck by Suella Braverman saying “I’m sorry we didn’t listen to you. We failed to deliver on the promises we made”.  When she refers to a public not being listened to, she is referring solely to the ‘people’ she consults with. She confuses people she speaks to with the general British Public. The British Public have made themselves heard through the general election, and she’s still not listening. I hope she gets it, that the public turned away because of what she was proposing. They do not want what she wants. She should realise by now that she does not speak for the people. They are against her, not for her. Braverman’s hypocrisy and denial of reality is shameful. Has she no spark of decency left? She will undoubtedly push herself forward as the next leader of what is still considered to be the Conservative Party, but my guess is she will fail. That being the case, I believe she will cross over to the Reform Party.

 

Priti Patel is in the same league. They might even be twins. Somehow I don’t think they like each other very much. Bullies tend to not associate with other bullies, although they love having acolytes.

 

At least Mr Sunak was gracious in leaving his post with wishing Sir Keir good luck and hope for his success. Humbled no doubt by the loss, despite warning people of the dangerous and terrifying consequences of a Labour Government being put in place.

 

So far as media attention goes, in the coming months, the Government will not have much of a honeymoon, but they will be kept out of the headlines whilst the circus around the election of a new Conservative Party leader takes place. A good shield to hide behind however short lived. The accusations and recrimination to come will provide Robert Peston, Chris Mason, Laura Kuenssberg, Emily Maitlis, the ‘Today’ team and numerous other pundits with stuff to be chewed over ad infinitum. The cartoonists too will have a field day. It will be a sorry spectacle for the British public. 

 

We live in hope and breath a light sigh of relief. The winds of change seem to be flowing in the desired direction and may yet waft across to the United States with sufficient ferocity to blow away the webs of deceit around Mr Trump and reveal him in the light just what a charlatan and gangster  he is.  Blow winds blow.